The S&P 500 finished flat anyway, off just 1.8 points.

The 2-year jumped 13 basis points as October hike odds hit about 70%.

Today's $70 billion 5-year auction follows a soft 2-year sale.

Brent is still about 40% above its pre-war February level.

Oil is back above $100 and gold gained anyway.

Gold added 2 percent as the dollar slid against most majors.

The Dow lost 631 points while the Nasdaq closed flat. That split is the story.

Gold fell to a six-week low, and bitcoin lost $75,900 on a failed Senate vote.

Empire State at 8:30 a.m. ET, then a two-day Fed meeting.

The annual core rate fell to a 2021 low, and the market looked past it.

Gold fell 1.7% on an inflation day. That is the tell.

The VIX closed at 16.44, still in the mid-teens.

The petroleum reserve is at its lowest level since November 1982.

The 2-year yield touched 4.42% Friday, its highest since January 2025.

Gold handed back $63 an ounce in one session as the front end repriced.

WTI at a six-week high is doing the inflation work the Fed is watching.

Claims at 8:30, ISM services at 10, payrolls Friday.

WTI settled at $85.76 after U.S. strikes on Larak Island.

The Russell 2000 fell three times as hard as the S&P 500.

The BLS marked down a year of payrolls while he was still talking.

Twenty-three of the Dow's 30 members finished lower.

Nvidia guided to $108 billion and futures moved overnight.

The bond market moved first. The stock market barely moved at all.

Semis dropped 2.7% even with yields falling, two days before Nvidia.

US business activity just hit a 52-month high. That makes the long end harder, not easier.