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  • The Inflation Scare Faded. The AI Test Remains.

The Inflation Scare Faded. The AI Test Remains.

Markets enter Tuesday with oil falling sharply, yields easing, and technology leadership still under pressure.

Brian Tancock
Brian Tancock

Jul 28, 2026

•

4 min read

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U.S. markets enter Tuesday, July 28, 2026, with conditions set by the Monday, July 27 close.

Stocks stabilized after last week’s volatility. Oil reversed sharply lower. Treasury yields eased. The Dow strengthened. The S&P 500 barely moved. The Nasdaq weakened. Small caps improved. AI pressure remained. The dollar softened. Gold gained.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18.
The Nasdaq closed at 24,932.08.
The Dow closed at 52,210.08.
The Russell 2000 closed at 2,948.03.

The surface stabilized. The internal structure remained mixed as energy pressure eased while technology leadership continued facing questions.

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Equity Markets

Monday’s session showed a divided market.

The Russell 2000 rose +0.6%.
The Dow gained +0.5%.
The S&P 500 rose less than +0.1%.
The Nasdaq fell -0.2%.

That ranked the major indexes from strongest to weakest as: Russell 2000, Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq.

The Dow gained 262.83 points.
The Russell 2000 gained 18.04 points.
The S&P 500 gained 1.20 points.
The Nasdaq lost 43.74 points.

The strongest signal came from the Dow. Large-cap stocks improved as investors rotated away from some of the technology names that faced pressure last week. The S&P 500 finished almost unchanged. The index absorbed two opposing forces. Lower oil prices helped. Technology weakness hurt. The Nasdaq remained the weak point. Nvidia fell around 5%, weighing on the index and showing that AI leadership remains fragile.

The biggest market question remains unchanged: Can AI spending translate into enough earnings growth to justify current valuations?

Small caps improved. The Russell 2000 gained 0.6% and moved back toward 3,000. That showed broader participation improving after several difficult sessions. The market remains split. Blue chips are stabilizing. Technology is still being tested.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields moved lower Monday.

The 2-year yield stayed above 4%.
The 10-year yield moved near 4.65%.
The 30-year yield remained elevated.

The bond market received relief from falling oil prices. Lower crude reduced some immediate inflation pressure. That helped yields move lower after last week’s surge.

The 10-year yield remains the key rate for equity valuations. At elevated levels, it continues limiting upside for expensive growth stocks.
The 2-year yield above 4% shows policy expectations remain firm. The rate backdrop improved. But it did not fully loosen.

Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve decision later this week.

Currency Markets

The dollar softened Monday. The U.S. Dollar Index moved slightly lower. The yen strengthened. The euro recovered. The move reflected lower oil prices and easing inflation pressure. A softer dollar helped commodities and reduced some pressure on global assets.

The currency market showed a small shift:

  • Less immediate inflation stress.

  • Less demand for defensive positioning.

However, markets remain focused on rates and the Fed. The dollar backdrop improved, but policy expectations remain important.

Commodities

Commodity markets were led by the oil reversal.

WTI crude moved near $82.56.
Brent crude moved near $85.87.
Spot gold traded near $4,074.22.
Gold futures traded near $4,077.00.

Oil was the biggest move of the day. Brent fell sharply after reaching $102 last week. The decline came after the U.S.-Iran pause reduced some immediate supply fears. That provided relief across markets. Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns. Lower inflation pressure helped bonds. Gold moved higher. The metal benefited from easing dollar pressure and continued uncertainty. The commodity backdrop improved. Oil became less threatening. Gold remained supported.

Macro Backdrop

Tuesday’s setup begins with a market that is calmer, but not resolved. Last week’s biggest pressure point was oil. Monday showed what happens when that pressure fades. Energy prices dropped. Yields eased. Stocks stabilized. But the biggest equity question remains technology. The Nasdaq is still dealing with AI valuation concerns.

Investors are waiting for earnings from the largest technology companies to determine whether spending levels can produce sufficient returns.

The market is now balancing three forces:

  • AI earnings.

  • Federal Reserve policy.

  • Energy prices.

The oil shock has eased. The AI debate remains. That makes earnings the next major signal.

Entering Today's Open

Key reference levels:

  • S&P 500: 7,413.18

  • Dow Jones: 52,210.08

  • Nasdaq: 24,932.08

  • Russell 2000: 2,948.03

  • 10-Year Yield: near 4.65%

  • 2-Year Yield: above 4%

  • 30-Year Yield: elevated

  • U.S. Dollar Index: slightly lower

  • WTI Crude: near $82.56

  • Brent Crude: near $85.87

  • Spot Gold: near $4,074.22

  • Gold Futures: near $4,077.00

Markets enter Tuesday after a stabilization session. The Dow strengthened. The Russell 2000 improved. The S&P 500 was nearly flat. The Nasdaq remained under pressure. Oil fell sharply. Treasury yields eased. The dollar weakened. Gold gained.

The key takeaway: Monday’s close showed the market can stabilize when oil pressure fades, but the bigger test remains technology. Energy risk eased, yields improved, and blue chips strengthened but investors still need proof that AI spending can translate into sustainable earnings growth.

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