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  • The Dow Surged 595. AI Stocks Cracked Again.

The Dow Surged 595. AI Stocks Cracked Again.

Thursday’s close brought a record Dow, a weaker dollar, softer jobs data, and another sharp selloff in semiconductors.

Brian Tancock
Brian Tancock

Jul 3, 2026

•

4 min read

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U.S. markets enter Friday, July 3, 2026, with conditions set by the Thursday, July 2 close and the Independence Day holiday.

U.S. cash equity markets are closed Friday. Bond markets are also closed. Thursday was the final full trading session of the week. Stocks finished mixed. The Dow surged to another record close. The S&P 500 finished flat. The Nasdaq fell again. Small caps slipped below 3,000. Chip stocks weakened sharply. Treasury yields ended mixed. The dollar fell. Oil edged higher, but stayed near prewar levels.

Gold jumped back above $4,100.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,483.24.
The Nasdaq closed at 25,832.67.
The Dow closed at 52,900.07.
The Russell 2000 closed at 2,996.11.

The surface was mixed. The internal structure was stronger than the Nasdaq headline suggested, but weakness in semiconductors and AI-linked stocks kept pressure on growth leadership.

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Equity Markets

Thursday’s session showed a wide split across the major indexes.

The Dow gained +1.1%.
The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%.
The Russell 2000 fell -0.5%.
The Nasdaq dropped -0.8%.

That ranked the major indexes from strongest to weakest as: Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq.

The Dow gained 594.83 points.
The S&P 500 gained 0.01 points.
The Russell 2000 lost 16.48 points.
The Nasdaq lost 207.36 points.

The strongest signal came from the Dow. It closed at 52,900.07, another record close, and finished more than 1% higher. That gave the session a clear blue-chip leadership signal. The weakest signal came from the Nasdaq. It fell 0.8% after giving back an early gain. The main pressure came from semiconductors. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.4%, extending a sharp two-day decline. That mattered because chips and AI-linked stocks have been central to the market’s 2026 leadership. When that group sells off, the Nasdaq can weaken even when most stocks are rising.

Apple helped offset the damage. The stock rose 4.8% after reports of new iPhone models planned for launch. Tesla moved the other way. It fell 7.5% despite reporting stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries.

Breadth was better on the NYSE. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 1.42 to 1. Nasdaq breadth was weaker. Decliners outnumbered advancers by 1.05 to 1. U.S. exchange volume was 19.92 billion shares. That was below the 23.34 billion-share average over the prior 20 sessions.

For the week, the Dow rose 2.0%.
The S&P 500 gained 1.8%.
The Nasdaq advanced 2.1%.
The Russell 2000 fell 0.5%.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields ended mixed after the jobs report.

The 2-year yield moved near 4.13%.
The 10-year yield moved near 4.45%.
The 30-year yield moved near 4.99%.

The short end eased after the jobs data. That showed lower pressure for an immediate Federal Reserve hike.

The 2-year yield stayed above 4%. That kept policy risk in the market, even after rate-hike expectations cooled.
The 10-year yield ended slightly higher near 4.45%. That kept long-duration assets sensitive to rates.
The 30-year yield stayed close to 5%. That kept long-end pressure visible even as short-end pressure eased.

The bond market did not send a clean easing signal. The jobs report lowered near-term rate-hike concern, but longer yields remained elevated. Markets enter the holiday break with front-end pressure lower, but the broader rate backdrop is still restrictive.

Currency Markets

The dollar weakened after the softer jobs report.

The U.S. Dollar Index moved near 100.88.
The dollar fell about 0.5% on the day.
The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.47% to 97.25.

The yen strengthened from recent multi-decade lows. The move reflected lower expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. That mattered because the dollar had been one of the clearest tightening signals in the market.

A weaker dollar helped gold. It also eased part of the global financial backdrop before the holiday. The yen remained important. It had been trading close to its weakest levels in decades, keeping intervention risk in focus.

The currency backdrop improved at the margin. The dollar fell, but it stayed high enough to keep global conditions from looking fully loose.

Commodities

Commodity markets were led by gold strength and steady oil.

WTI crude settled at $68.69.
Brent crude settled at $71.80.
Spot gold traded near $4,116.54.
Gold futures settled at $4,125.70.

Oil edged higher before the long weekend.

WTI rose 0.2%.
Brent gained 0.3%.

Both benchmarks stayed near prewar levels. That kept the energy backdrop much cleaner than it was during the June oil spike. The oil tape was still not fully calm. Markets continued to track U.S.-Iran talks, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the durability of the de-escalation process. Gold moved sharply higher.

Spot gold rose 2.2%.
Gold futures gained 1.1%.

The move came after the weaker payrolls report lowered rate-hike expectations and pulled the dollar lower. Silver also strengthened. It rose 2.6% to $60.69 per ounce. The commodity backdrop is now split. Oil is contained, while gold is responding to softer labor data, lower rate pressure, and a weaker dollar.

Macro Backdrop

The Friday setup is different from a normal trading day. U.S. markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

Thursday’s close is the last full cash-market signal before the long weekend. The main macro signal was the jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June. Economists expected about 110,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%. May payrolls were revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. That softened the labor backdrop. It also reduced concern about an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.

September hike expectations fell to about 55% from 64.1% in one market measure. That helped the Dow and gold, while weakening the dollar. But the equity tape was not fully clean.

The Dow hit a record.
The S&P 500 finished flat.
The Nasdaq fell 0.8%.
The semiconductor index dropped 5.4%.

Markets enter the long weekend with a softer rate-hike signal, lower dollar pressure, contained oil, and continued stress in AI-linked leadership. The setup is better on macro, but still split inside equities.

Entering Today's Open

Key reference levels:

  • S&P 500: 7,483.24

  • Dow Jones: 52,900.07

  • Nasdaq: 25,832.67

  • Russell 2000: 2,996.11

  • 10-Year Yield: near 4.45%

  • 2-Year Yield: near 4.13%

  • 30-Year Yield: near 4.99%

  • U.S. Dollar Index: near 100.88

  • WTI Crude: $68.69

  • Brent Crude: $71.80

  • Spot Gold: near $4,116.54

  • Gold Futures: $4,125.70

Markets enter the Independence Day holiday after a mixed Thursday close. The Dow surged to another record. The S&P 500 finished flat. The Nasdaq fell again. Small caps slipped below 3,000. Semiconductors sold off sharply. Treasury yields ended mixed. The dollar weakened. Oil stayed near $69. Gold moved back above $4,100.

The key takeaway: Thursday’s close gave markets a softer rate-hike signal, but not a clean equity signal. The Dow hit another record and gold surged after weak payrolls, while chip weakness kept the Nasdaq under pressure heading into the long holiday weekend.

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