September housing starts fell to 1.221 million annualized, 6% below the 1.30 million consensus. Bloomberg called the pace one of the weakest since the pandemic.
The number arrived at 8:30 a.m. and vanished under a 530-point Dow rally. After Monday's NAHB hit a 14-year low, the back-to-back misses form the sector's clearest downturn signal since 2022.
The Dow gained 530 points (+1.02%) to 52,496. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,713; the Nasdaq lost 6.
3M shares gained 5.8% after beating and raising; Northrop Grumman rose 4.6% on $7.89 EPS against $7.18 expected. GM fell 6.8% despite a $3.70 EPS beat after narrowing its outlook.
The Russell 2000 gained 1.65% to 2,773 as falling oil powered cyclicals over growth. Tesla and Meta after tonight's close test whether that rotation persists.
Brent crude fell more than 3% intraday Tuesday after reports of a U.S.-approved proposal for IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities. The drop cracked a two-week rally that had pushed Brent to $110 on Friday for the first time since May.
WTI touched $95.25 before recovering to settle near $98. The drop helped power Tuesday's rotation from growth into cyclicals.
Today's EIA report at 10:30 a.m. follows last week's 8.6-million-barrel crude draw.
One Signature Away From a Repricing
Markets don't reprice when a mine pours gold. They reprice the day the uncertainty dies.
On May 21, a federal bank voted unanimously to lend nearly $3 billion to one small American gold miner, and final papers are expected in the second half of this year.
The company is about 1/50th the size of Newmont.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 5.12%, and the 30-year dropped 5 basis points to 5.43%. Both retreated as the housing miss and the oil pullback eased two of the pressures that had pushed yields toward 24-year highs earlier this month.
The 2-year edged down 3 basis points to 4.74%, and the dollar index slipped 0.27% to 101.71. With the Fed in blackout through October 29, the bond market faces the FOMC without fresh official commentary.
Netflix beat third-quarter estimates after Tuesday's close, posting $0.87 EPS against a $0.82 consensus on $12.87 billion in revenue, per the company's shareholder letter. Shares fell in after-hours trading.
Revenue grew 12% year over year, and operating margin reached 34.6%, up from 28.2% a year ago. The company guided Q4 revenue to $13.4 billion with a 26% operating margin, per its shareholder letter.
A beat that still sells is the backdrop Tesla and Meta inherit tonight.
Tesla and Meta headline Wednesday's after-hours earnings, joined by IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, and SAP. Tesla's consensus is $0.45 EPS, following a Q2 miss that produced just $0.33.
Before the open: Abbott Labs, AT&T, and Philip Morris. The EIA crude inventory report at 10:30 a.m. follows Brent's 3% pullback and last week's 8.6-million-barrel crude draw.
No other major economic releases are scheduled, and the pre-FOMC blackout keeps all Fed speakers silent through October 29.
