The 30-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.273%, above the 5.21% it carried a week earlier. Treasury doubled its long-dated buybacks midweek and the long bond still finished the week higher.
Tuesday's 5.34% was the highest in roughly 19 years, a level last seen before the financial crisis. The buyback bought one session of relief.
Friday was a rebound inside a losing week. The S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 7,674.37, the Nasdaq Composite 0.43% to 26,180.45, and the Dow 0.98% to 53,277.01, according to AP figures.
The weekly tally was the second straight decline, with the S&P 500 off 1.4% and the Nasdaq off 2.1%. Both down weeks tracked the long end rather than earnings, which puts unusual weight on Nvidia's report Wednesday.
S&P Global's flash composite output index hit 56.0 in August, up from 54.5 in July and above the 54.0 consensus. That is the strongest reading since April 2022, pointing to third-quarter growth near 3% annualized.
Services carried it at 56.8, a 20-month high, as manufacturing slipped to 53.2. Strong activity data removes the growth-scare case for owning duration, which is why Friday's beat sat badly with a 5.27% long bond.
Gold's December contract touched $4,569.40 Friday, its highest since May 15, and booked a fifth consecutive weekly gain of nearly 5%, per CNBC. That streak is the longest since October 2025.
The dollar index fell to a three-month low over the same stretch. Gold climbing alongside 19-year highs in long yields is a fiscal credibility trade, and the $40 trillion debt milestone crossed last week is its reference point.
WTI closed near $87.06 and Brent near $94.39, each up about 5% for a second straight week. Both sit roughly 37% and 39% above year-ago levels.
Energy is the one input that can reverse the cooler selling-price readings inside Friday's PMI, a risk S&P Global flagged directly. It is also the channel that feeds the inflation premium sitting in that 30-year yield.
Today's calendar is nearly empty. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the prior reading at negative 0.02.
Treasury sells 13-week and 26-week bills this morning. After last week, those auctions get read for demand rather than treated as routine.
Bessent is due to detail the new Iran measures today. Crude pushing higher on that news would work directly against Friday's disinflation signal.
Wednesday brings July PCE and Nvidia earnings on the same day. Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday, and the long end is what he will be judged against.
