The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.77% on Monday, up from 4.71% Friday. Bloomberg put the move above 4.75% as the first since January 2025, about 19 months.
No US economic data was scheduled for the session. Oil and a Friday speech did the work instead.
West Texas Intermediate traded above $85 a barrel and Brent moved back over $90, both up more than 3%, according to Bloomberg. US Central Command said American forces struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Brent has covered a range of nearly $17 this month. Higher crude feeds the same inflation math that lifted the 10-year, which is why a bond move that size arrived on an empty calendar.
Markets now price roughly a 57% chance of a 25 basis point hike on September 16, up from about 40% a week ago, per Trading Economics. Kalshi had the odds at 48% on Friday, immediately after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, CNBC reported.
Warsh said inflation is not meaningfully slowing and the Fed has work to do. Five-year yields also hit their highest since early 2025 on Monday, so the repricing runs across the curve and not just the long end.
The S&P 500 fell 0.45% and the Dow lost 0.60%, per TheStreet. Energy was the only sector to finish higher, up 0.9%, and a 5.2% gain in Tesla held the Nasdaq's loss to 0.34%, according to The Motley Fool.
The Russell 2000 dropped 1.39%, three times the S&P's decline. That spread measures how much of Monday was a rates story rather than a war story.
August still closed green. The S&P 500 gained 2.5% for the month, per Trading Economics, and the Dow booked a fifth straight monthly advance.
The VIX closed Friday at 14.13, its lowest level of 2026, and finished Monday at 14.43, per Yahoo Finance. It was quoted above 15 before Tuesday's open.
Since 1990, the median VIX close in late August has sat near 16.5 and climbs toward 18 by mid-September, according to Yahoo Finance analysis of AlphaSpace data. Volatility enters the year's roughest stretch below its own norm, with payrolls four sessions out.
S&P Global's final August manufacturing PMI lands at 9:45 a.m. ET, consensus 53.3.
ISM manufacturing follows at 10:00 a.m., consensus 55.2 against July's 55.6, the strongest reading since May 2022. Prices paid were 71.1 last month, and a higher print hands the hike case its clearest evidence yet.
JOLTS openings for July arrive at the same hour, consensus 7.31 million against 7.36 million. A soft number would be the first thing this week to complicate that case before Friday's payrolls.
