Consumer sentiment printed 51.0 in the University of Michigan's preliminary August read, down about 8% from July's 55.2 and more than three points under the 54.5 consensus. Outside of 2022 and this year, the survey has never come in this low across its 74-year history.
The record low, 44.8, was set in May. Friday's number says the June and July recovery is finished.
Stocks barely flinched. The S&P 500 fell 13.23 points to 7,785.76, a 0.2% slip from Thursday's record, and still closed a third straight weekly gain of 0.4% (AP, Aug. 14).
The Dow lost 107.58 to 53,732.41 and the Nasdaq shed 0.3% to 26,729.16. The VIX ended at 14.25, its lowest of 2026, so a near-record sentiment print bought almost no downside hedging.
July retail sales fell 0.6% to $763.6 billion against a consensus near a 0.1% gain, the first monthly decline since October 2025 (Census Bureau, Aug. 14). The Washington Post put it as the biggest drop in more than a year.
The GDP control group fell 0.4%, its worst since early 2025. Online sales dropped 2.2%, partly because Amazon moved Prime Day into June, which flatters the miss.
The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.68% and the 2-year at 4.17% (Advisor Perspectives, Aug. 14). The 10-year tested 4.75% on Tuesday, a 19-month high, before soft PPI and the retail miss drained urgency from the September hike case.
The long end moved less. Energy costs and the risk of Japanese reserve sales keep a premium in 30-year paper, and the latest 30-year auction tailed sharply.
September WTI settled at $82.40, up 1.42%, with Brent at $88.52. Both gained roughly 5% on the week after tanker attacks resumed in the Strait of Hormuz and Washington held its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Diesel rose nearly 10% on the week and gasoline futures nearly 7%. Pump prices above $4 are what the Michigan survey is actually measuring, and Friday's oil move is what took the morning gains away from equities.
The dollar index eased to 99.55, consistent with fading hike odds rather than any vote of confidence in the consumer.
Today's calendar is thin. The Empire State manufacturing index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus near 10 after July's 15.6.
The NAHB housing market index follows at 10 a.m., expected close to July's 34 reading. A soft builder print alongside a 10-year near 4.70% would tighten the housing squeeze rather than relieve it.
June TIC flows arrive at 4 p.m., the first hard look at whether foreign buyers stepped back last quarter. Wednesday's FOMC minutes cover the July 28 to 29 meeting where three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and that is the week's real event.
