The S&P 500 finished near 7,830 yesterday, its highest close ever. The prior record of 7,818.93 stood since October 6.
Columbus Day shut the bond market, one of only two sessions a year, when stocks trade without Treasury pricing. That gain of about 0.3%, enters Tuesday's earnings with no yield reaction behind it.
Friday's 10-year yield of 5.24%, sits near the highest since April 2002. September added more than 50 basis points, the largest monthly jump since September 2022.
Bond traders return Tuesday to a tape that set an equity record in their absence. A September CPI print above the 3.7% consensus, would sharpen the case for the December rate increase that CME FedWatch prices at roughly 69%.
WTI crude settled Friday at $91.85, up nearly 60% on the year. Crude at that level added to the inflation pressure that carried the 10-year yield past 5.20% in September.
Gold gained 1.5% Friday to $4,194.36, despite the dollar finishing at 102.23, a combination that normally weighs on the metal. Oil near $92 shapes the energy-cost discussion four banks will face on Tuesday morning.
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report before Tuesday's open, the most concentrated bank earnings morning of the quarter. The S&P 500's record raises the bar those results must clear to sustain it.
The options market implies a single-session move of 3.65% for JPMorgan and 5% for Wells Fargo. JPMorgan's release arrives at about 7 a.m. ET, with its call at 8:30 a.m., the morning's first read on bank health.
Three stocks, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft, account for more than 21% of the S&P 500, above the 1980s peak of 13.4% held by IBM, AT&T and Exxon. The record reflects the weight of those names more than broad participation.
That concentration leaves the new record exposed to any single earnings miss from the top three. The NFIB Small Business Optimism reading at 6 a.m. ET tests whether smaller firms share the confidence the index level implies.
The September NFIB index posts at 6 a.m. ET, consensus 98.0 vs. 98.7 in August. A print below that 52-year average, would be the first in three months.
September existing home sales land at 10 a.m. ET, consensus near 3.97 million. A miss would mark another month below 4 million annualized.
Four banks report before the open, led by JPMorgan. Fed Governor Waller, who last week signaled more hikes, speaks at 3:45 a.m. ET.
