Brent settled at $97.31 on Monday, up 1.1%, its highest close since July 24, per Reuters. US equity markets were shut for Labor Day, so nothing in stocks priced it.
Brent gained about 8% last week and WTI nearly 10%. This morning's open absorbed both sessions at once.
Friday's payroll report reset the front end. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August against a 53,000 consensus.
The 2-year yield ended near 4.37% after touching 4.4246%, its highest since January 2025. The 10-year closed around 4.79% and the 30-year at 5.25%.
Futures now price in roughly a 58% chance of a hike on September 16, up from about 50% before the report. Crude near $97 makes that pricing harder to walk back before Friday.
The S&P 500 fell 0.38% Friday to 7,718.60, the Dow 0.51% to 53,414.25 and the Nasdaq 0.29% to 26,506.99. Underneath the index moves, the split was wide.
Apple lost 2.55%, Microsoft 2.05% and Tesla 5.9%. Chips ran the other way, with Micron up 6.1%, Marvell 7% and AMD 4.7%.
The VIX closed at 15.30, a low reading for a market repricing a rate hike. Today tests whether that calm survives a higher 10-year and a higher oil tape.
Gold did not act like a war hedge. Spot fell about 2% Friday and slipped Monday again to roughly $4,411, down 0.42%.
The US and Iran struck each other's ships over the weekend, and the metal still lost ground. Rate pricing outweighed the geopolitical bid.
The dollar index held just above 99, adding pressure from the currency side. A hot CPI on Friday keeps that combination intact.
Crude has already reached the consumer. Gasoline and diesel each set records for a Labor Day weekend.
The July CPI energy index was up 14.7% over twelve months. August adds another month of the same pressure.
The Cleveland Fed nowcast puts August headline CPI at 3.38% year over year, close to July's 3.4%. Core is tracking near 2.38%, which leaves the energy line as the swing factor.
Today's calendar is light. NFIB small business optimism for August lands at 6 a.m. ET, and July consumer credit at 3 p.m. ET.
Neither one moves the rate debate. The FOMC blackout began September 5 and runs through September 17, so no Fed voice arrives to shape this week's inflation prints.
PPI comes Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and CPI comes Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. With Brent near $97, an upside surprise in the energy component would take the September hike from likely to near certain.
