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  • Markets Reopen With A Split Tape.

Markets Reopen With A Split Tape.

The latest close left the Dow at a record, Nasdaq under pressure, small caps below 3,000, and rate-hike odds lower.

Brian Tancock
Brian Tancock

Jul 6, 2026

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5 min read

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U.S. markets enter Monday, July 6, 2026 with conditions set by the Thursday, July 2 close and the Independence Day holiday break.

U.S. cash equity markets were closed Friday. Bond markets were also closed. Thursday was the latest full U.S. trading session. Stocks finished mixed before the long weekend. The Dow surged to another record close. The S&P 500 finished flat. The Nasdaq fell again. Small caps slipped below 3,000. Semiconductors sold off sharply. Treasury yields ended mixed. The dollar weakened.

Oil stayed near $69.
Gold moved back above $4,100.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,483.24.
The Nasdaq closed at 25,832.67.
The Dow closed at 52,900.07.
The Russell 2000 closed at 2,996.11.

The surface was mixed. The internal structure was not as weak as the Nasdaq suggested, but the pressure in semiconductors kept growth leadership under stress heading into the holiday gap.

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Equity Markets

Thursday’s session showed a wide split across the major indexes.

The Dow gained +1.1%.
The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%.
The Russell 2000 fell -0.5%.
The Nasdaq dropped -0.8%.

That ranked the major indexes from strongest to weakest as: Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq.

The Dow gained 594.83 points.
The S&P 500 gained 0.01 points.
The Russell 2000 lost 16.48 points.
The Nasdaq lost 207.36 points.

The strongest signal came from the Dow. It closed at 52,900.07, another record close, and finished more than 1% higher. That gave the latest session a clear blue-chip leadership signal. The weakest signal came from the Nasdaq. It fell 0.8% after giving back an early gain. The main pressure came from semiconductors. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.4%, extending a sharp two-day decline. That mattered because chips and AI-linked stocks have been central to the market’s 2026 leadership. When that group weakens, the Nasdaq can stay under pressure even when the Dow is at a record.

Apple helped offset part of the damage. The stock rose 4.8% after reports of new iPhone models planned for launch. Tesla moved the other way. It fell 7.5% despite reporting stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries. Breadth was better on the NYSE. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 1.42 to 1. Nasdaq breadth was weaker. Decliners outnumbered advancers by 1.05 to 1. For the holiday-shortened week, the Dow rose 2.0%.

The S&P 500 gained 1.8%.
The Nasdaq advanced 2.1%.
The Russell 2000 fell 0.5%.

That weekly structure is the main equity signal for Monday. The broad index tape improved, but small caps lost support and chip weakness kept pressure on growth leadership.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields ended mixed in the latest cash session.

The 2-year yield moved near 4.13%.
The 10-year yield moved near 4.45%.
The 30-year yield moved near 4.99%.

The short end eased after the jobs data. That showed lower pressure for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.

The 2-year yield stayed above 4%. That kept policy risk in the market, even after rate-hike expectations cooled.
The 10-year yield stayed near 4.45%. That kept long-duration assets sensitive to rates.
The 30-year yield remained close to 5%. That kept long-end pressure visible before markets closed for the holiday.

The bond market did not send a clean easing signal. The jobs report lowered near-term rate-hike concern, but longer yields remained elevated. Markets reopen Monday with front-end pressure softer, but the broader rate backdrop is still restrictive.

Currency Markets

The dollar weakened after the softer jobs report.

The U.S. Dollar Index moved near 100.88.
The dollar fell about 0.5% on the day.
The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.47% to 97.25.

The yen strengthened from recent multi-decade lows. The move reflected lower expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. That mattered because the dollar had been one of the clearest tightening signals in the market. A weaker dollar helped gold. It also eased part of the global financial backdrop before the long weekend. The yen remained important. It had been trading close to its weakest levels in decades, keeping intervention risk in focus.

The currency backdrop improved at the margin. The dollar fell, but it stayed high enough to keep global conditions from looking fully loose. Markets reopen Monday with dollar pressure lower than it was earlier in the week, but not fully removed.

Commodities

Commodity markets were led by gold strength and steady oil.

WTI crude settled at $68.69.
Brent crude settled at $71.80.
Spot gold traded near $4,116.54.
Gold futures settled at $4,125.70.

Oil edged higher before the long weekend.

WTI rose 0.2%.
Brent gained 0.3%.

Both benchmarks stayed near prewar levels. That kept the energy backdrop much cleaner than it was during the June oil spike. The oil tape was still not fully calm. Markets continued to track U.S.-Iran talks, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the durability of the de-escalation process. Gold moved sharply higher.

Spot gold rose 2.2%.
Gold futures gained 1.1%.

The move came after the weaker payrolls report lowered rate-hike expectations and pulled the dollar lower. Silver also strengthened. It rose 2.6% to $60.69 per ounce. The commodity backdrop is now split. Oil is contained, while gold is responding to softer labor data, lower rate pressure, and a weaker dollar.

Macro Backdrop

The Monday setup is shaped by the long weekend gap.

There was no Friday U.S. equity close.
There was no Friday Treasury close.

The latest U.S. market signal came from Thursday’s mixed session. The main macro signal was the jobs report.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June.
Economists expected about 110,000.
The unemployment rate held at 4.2%.
May payrolls were revised down to 129,000 from 172,000.

That softened the labor backdrop. It also reduced concern about an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike. September hike expectations fell to about 55% from 64.1% in one market measure. That helped the Dow and gold, while weakening the dollar. But the equity tape was not fully clean. The Dow hit a record. The S&P 500 finished flat.

The Nasdaq fell 0.8%.
The semiconductor index dropped 5.4%.
The Russell 2000 slipped below 3,000.

Markets reopen Monday with a softer rate-hike signal, lower dollar pressure, contained oil, and continued stress in AI-linked leadership. The setup is better on macro than it was earlier in June, but still split inside equities.

Entering Today's Open

Key reference levels:

  • S&P 500: 7,483.24

  • Dow Jones: 52,900.07

  • Nasdaq: 25,832.67

  • Russell 2000: 2,996.11

  • 10-Year Yield: near 4.45%

  • 2-Year Yield: near 4.13%

  • 30-Year Yield: near 4.99%

  • U.S. Dollar Index: near 100.88

  • WTI Crude: $68.69

  • Brent Crude: $71.80

  • Spot Gold: near $4,116.54

  • Gold Futures: $4,125.70

Markets enter Monday after a holiday-shortened week. The Dow surged to another record. The S&P 500 finished flat. The Nasdaq fell again. Small caps slipped below 3,000. Semiconductors sold off sharply. Treasury yields ended mixed. The dollar weakened. Oil stayed near $69. Gold moved back above $4,100.

The key takeaway: markets reopen with a softer macro tone, but not a clean equity tape. The Dow is at a record, oil is contained, and the dollar has eased, while chip weakness, Nasdaq pressure, and small caps below 3,000 keep Monday’s setup split.

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