Spot gold touched $3,975.23 on Friday, its first print below $4,000 since mid-July. December futures settled at $4,007.90 on Comex, capping a 4.1% weekly loss, the steepest since June. That decline arrived alongside a 17-basis-point bond rally on Thursday, the kind of session that normally pulls money into bullion. Instead, gold sold off into the rally and through it.
The reason sat in the oil market. Brent crude settled at $116.72, up 3.1% on Friday and roughly 6% on the week, its highest close since April 29. WTI finished at $103.27, its highest settlement since September 15. Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and Iran's public pledge of readiness for asymmetric warfare kept supply risk elevated. When oil rises this fast, it reprices inflation expectations before anything else. The one-year consumer inflation reading in Friday's Michigan survey climbed to 4.7%, and the five-year measure hit 3.5%. Gold, which thrives on real-rate declines, loses its bid when rising energy costs threaten to keep the Fed tightening.
That threat showed up in the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 5.00%, erasing a chunk of Thursday's historic drop. The 2-year added 5 basis points to 4.686%, and the 30-year climbed 4 basis points to 5.312%. CME FedWatch priced a 92% probability of a hold at Wednesday's FOMC decision but kept December hike odds near 78%. The bond market gave back Thursday's relief in a single session, a pattern that has repeated four times since the 10-year first crossed 5% in mid-September.
An economy that 63% of Americans say is headed in the wrong direction.
They impeached him. Twice. They indicted him. They raided his home.
They tried to remove him from the ballot. Someone even tried to take his life.
Every single time, he found a way.
Now he's facing something bigger than all of that. A $38 trillion debt bomb.
Interest payments crossing a trillion a year. Markets swinging wildly. A war in the Middle East. And an economy that 63% of Americans say is headed in the wrong direction.
The talking heads say there's no way out. The math is impossible. The hole is too deep.
But 45 has always had a "Trump card" nobody saw coming.
And right now, there's one move he can make that doesn't require Congress. Doesn't require a vote. Doesn't add a single penny to the debt.
One executive order that could add over $1 trillion to the government's balance sheet overnight and potentially create a wave of new American millionaires in the process.
It's not a theory. The legal authority already exists. A president used it before in 1934. The legislation is in Congress right now. And his own Treasury Secretary has hinted at it publicly.
We put together a free report called "The Great Gold Reset" that breaks down the entire play.
Inside you'll discover:
→ The one executive action Trump can take that could reshape the economy overnight, without Congress
→ The $1.2 trillion accounting error the government has ignored for 50 years, and why it can't be ignored much longer
→ The 1934 precedent that shows exactly what happens when a president plays this card, and how it created generational wealth
→ The "IRA Loophole" that lets everyday Americans get positioned in about 15 minutes, tax-free and penalty-free
→ The midterm pressure that could force Trump's hand before
November, and why analysts say the timeline is accelerating
They've thrown everything at this man. Nothing has stopped him.
And if he plays this final card, the Americans who saw it coming won't just be protected. They could be set for life.
Friday's equity selling broadened well past technology. The Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16, its first decline in four sessions. American Express dropped 3.7% after announcing a 5% workforce reduction, and Coca-Cola lost 2.76%. Nearly three of every four S&P 500 stocks closed lower, pushing the equal-weight index down 0.78%, worse than the cap-weighted S&P 500's 0.52% decline to 7,623.68, according to CappNotes data. The Nasdaq slipped just 0.21% as chip stocks steadied after Thursday's 6.7% Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rout. Energy was the top-performing S&P sector, up 2.60%, with SLB rising 7.1% after its earnings beat.
One data point from Friday deserves attention heading into the Fed meeting. The S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI for October printed at 56.0, a 53-month high, according to S&P Global. Manufacturing output has not been this strong since roughly May 2022. That reading, paired with oil above $100 and rising inflation expectations, gives the Fed little room to signal any easing, even as it holds rates at 3.75% to 4.00% this week.
Monday's calendar is light but not empty. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the prior reading at negative 0.04. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for October follows at 10:30 a.m. ET, after September's 9.8 reading. At 1:00 p.m. ET, the Treasury sells $69 billion in 2-year notes, the first of three coupon auctions this week, testing demand at a 4.69% yield with the FOMC decision 49 hours later.
Verizon reports before the open with consensus EPS at $1.27. The real weight lands after the bell, when Cadence Design Systems and Celestica report, extending the week's test of whether AI spending is still translating into revenue. The two-day FOMC meeting begins Tuesday, with the decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday.
