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  • Crude Fell Hard. Tech Broke The Rally.

Crude Fell Hard. Tech Broke The Rally.

Wednesday’s close left oil near $68, semiconductors lower, gold higher, and the S&P 500 down for the eighth time in 11 sessions.

Brian Tancock
Brian Tancock

Jul 2, 2026

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4 min read

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U.S. markets enter Thursday, July 2, 2026, with conditions set by the Wednesday, July 1 close. Stocks finished slightly lower. Technology weighed on the tape. Semiconductors weakened sharply. Meta helped limit the decline. The S&P 500 slipped. The Dow edged lower. The Nasdaq fell the most. The Russell 2000 moved lower. Treasury yields rose, then pared some of the move. The dollar strengthened. Oil fell to a four-month low. Gold bounced.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,483.23.
The Nasdaq closed at 26,040.03.
The Dow closed at 52,305.24.
The Russell 2000 closed at 3,012.59.

The surface weakened. The internal structure was better than the index move suggested, but technology and semiconductors kept pressure on the headline tape.

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Equity Markets

Wednesday’s session showed losses across all major indexes.

The Dow fell less than 0.1%.
The S&P 500 fell -0.2%.
The Russell 2000 fell -0.4%.
The Nasdaq dropped -0.7%.

That ranked the major indexes from strongest to weakest as: Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq.

The Dow lost 13.96 points.
The S&P 500 lost 16.13 points.
The Russell 2000 lost 11.78 points.
The Nasdaq lost 173.69 points.

The strongest relative signal came from the Dow. It finished lower, but only slightly, and held up better than the growth-heavy indexes. The weakest signal came from the Nasdaq. It lost 173.69 points as technology shares pulled back. The main pressure came from semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.3%. That mattered because chips had been one of the clearest leadership groups during the second-quarter rebound. When that group weakens, the market can look heavier even if broader participation is not poor.

Meta was the main offset. The stock rose 8.8% after reports that it is building a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity. That helped limit the decline in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Breadth was not deeply negative. Advancers outnumbered decliners by 1.07 to 1 on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, advancers outnumbered decliners by 1.16 to 1. U.S. exchange volume was 19.71 billion shares. That was below the 23.36 billion-share average over the prior 20 sessions.

For the week, the S&P 500 is up 1.8%.
The Nasdaq is up 2.9%.
The Dow is up 0.8%.
The Russell 2000 is up 0.1%.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields moved higher, then pared part of the increase.

The 2-year yield moved near 4.18%.
The 10-year yield moved near 4.48%.
The 30-year yield moved near 4.97%.

The bond market had two signals. Yields rose ahead of the June jobs report. That kept the rate backdrop firm. But yields also pulled back from the session highs after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations and inflation risks had eased in recent weeks.

The 10-year yield stayed below 4.5%. That kept the long end from breaking higher, even though it remained elevated.
The 2-year yield stayed above 4%. That kept policy risk anchored in the front end.
The 30-year yield moved close to 5% before easing back. That kept long-end pressure visible.

The bond market did not create a clean easing signal. It gave equities some support after the manufacturing data, but rates stayed high enough to keep the market sensitive to Thursday’s jobs report.

Currency Markets

The dollar strengthened through Wednesday’s session.

The U.S. Dollar Index moved near 101.41.
The euro traded near $1.1376.

The yen was little changed against the dollar after touching fresh 40-year low areas earlier in the session. The dollar remained firm as markets kept at least one more Federal Reserve hike in view for later this year. That matters because a firm dollar keeps global financial conditions tighter. It also adds pressure to commodities and foreign earnings translation.

The yen remained the clearest stress point in currency markets. The risk of Japanese intervention stayed in focus after the currency traded near multi-decade lows. The dollar’s strength did not drive a major equity selloff, but it kept the market from looking fully loose.

Currency markets enter Thursday with the same message as rates. Conditions are not tightening sharply, but they are still restrictive.

Commodities

Commodity markets were led by lower oil and stronger gold.

WTI crude settled at $68.58.
Brent crude settled at $71.57.
Spot gold traded near $4,071.04.
Gold futures settled at $4,082.40.

Oil fell to its lowest level since March.

WTI lost 1.32%.
Brent fell 1.89%.

The decline came as optimism around U.S.-Iran talks reduced supply concerns. Markets also tracked the recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That was the cleanest macro relief signal of the day. The U.S. crude inventory draw was 3.8 million barrels. That took inventories to 408.4 million barrels, the lowest level since September 2018. Even with that draw, oil still fell because the market focused more on supply-risk relief than inventory pressure.

Gold moved higher.
Spot gold rose 1.6%.
U.S. gold futures gained 1.1%.

The move reflected weaker private-payroll data, lower inflation-risk language from the Fed, and demand after gold’s weak quarter. The commodity backdrop is cleaner on energy, but more mixed overall. Oil is easing the inflation signal. Gold is rebounding as markets reassess the rate path.

Macro Backdrop

The Thursday setup is defined by lower oil, weaker technology leadership, and a market waiting for jobs data. Energy pressure improved.

WTI closed at $68.58.
Brent settled at $71.57.

Both benchmarks reached four-month lows. That reduced the immediate inflation-pressure signal from crude. But technology pressure returned.

The Nasdaq fell 0.7%.
Semiconductors dropped 6.3%.

The S&P 500 fell for the eighth time in 11 sessions. The macro data was mixed. ADP private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June. That was below expectations for 118,000. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 in June. That was down from 54.0 in May and below expectations for 54.0. Manufacturing still expanded, but at a slower pace. Those numbers helped reduce pressure on yields during the session, but they did not remove policy risk.

Markets enter Thursday with jobs data directly ahead. Economists expect payrolls to rise by about 110,000, with unemployment near 4.3%. The setup is cleaner on oil, but not clean on equities.

Entering Today's Open

Key reference levels:

  • S&P 500: 7,483.23

  • Dow Jones: 52,305.24

  • Nasdaq: 26,040.03

  • Russell 2000: 3,012.59

  • 10-Year Yield: near 4.48%

  • 2-Year Yield: near 4.18%

  • 30-Year Yield: near 4.97%

  • U.S. Dollar Index: near 101.41

  • WTI Crude: $68.58

  • Brent Crude: $71.57

  • Spot Gold: near $4,071.04

  • Gold Futures: $4,082.40

Markets enter Thursday after a slightly weaker Wednesday close. The Dow edged lower. The S&P 500 slipped. The Nasdaq led lower. The Russell 2000 fell, but stayed above 3,000. Semiconductors dropped sharply. Oil fell to a four-month low. The dollar strengthened. Gold rebounded. Treasury yields remained elevated.

The key takeaway: Wednesday’s close gave markets major oil relief, but not equity relief. Crude fell to four-month lows and gold rebounded, while semiconductor weakness pulled the Nasdaq lower and kept the tape tied to Thursday’s jobs report.

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