The Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumped 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, per data released Tuesday. The consensus was 81.0. The reading topped every forecast in Bloomberg's economist survey, a gap of 10.7 points that ranks as its biggest beat since May 2025.
Three months of declines had dragged confidence to its lowest level since 2014. Tuesday's reversal erased most of that slide in a single print, landing the index back at its June level. The beat now walks straight into today's FOMC decision.
Falling gasoline prices coincided with the rebound. The present-situation index rose 8.6 points to 120.4, and the share of respondents calling jobs plentiful hit a six-month high. That strength sits uncomfortably next to a labor market the Fed still considers too tight. CME FedWatch prices an 83% probability of a December rate hike. A confident consumer reading this hot gives Chair Warsh little room to soften that signal at today's 2:30 p.m. press conference.
The other macro releases confirmed the momentum. September durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the largest monthly gain in five months, above the 1.5% consensus. New home sales printed at a 676,000 annualized rate versus 650,000 expected. All three reports surprised to the upside on the same morning, a combination that reinforces the case for the December hike the confidence data already implied.
Chip stocks extended Monday's Anthropic-fueled bounce. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 3.60% to 11,482.51, its third consecutive advance after an eight-session losing streak. Celestica surged after beating revenue estimates by 6% and raising its full-year outlook. The SOX still sits roughly 22% below its June record. But three days of gains have lifted it from its 200-day moving average, a level it tested during last week's rout. Whether Alphabet and Microsoft reinforce or undercut that recovery depends on their capital-spending commentary after today's close.
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WTI crude settled at $99.90, down $1.86 or 1.83%, its first close below $100 since last Thursday. Brent slipped $1.93 to $113.88. Reports of renewed Saudi-Iran diplomacy eased supply fears for a second straight session. Energy was the weakest S&P 500 sector, falling over 2%. The oil retreat is the thread connecting Tuesday's confidence beat: gasoline prices are what pulled the present-situation index higher. If crude continues to fade, December's confidence read may extend the gain.
Boeing fell 10.69% to $168.18, an 18-month low, after reporting a wider-than-expected Q3 loss and cutting 737 production targets, per the company's earnings call. The drop shaved roughly 120 points from the Dow, which gained just 15.99 points on the session. Strip out Boeing, and the Dow's underlying move was closer to the S&P 500's 0.60% advance.
The FOMC rate decision arrives at 2:00 p.m. ET, with the press conference at 2:30 p.m. No hike is expected today, but the language around December is the variable. Advance goods trade data and wholesale inventories post at 8:30 a.m. Alphabet reports after the close with consensus at $3.03 EPS on $127.9 billion in revenue. Microsoft follows, with analysts expecting $4.73 EPS on $90.7 billion. A hawkish tilt from Warsh, combined with strong cloud-spending guidance, could push the 10-year yield, which barely moved Tuesday at 4.992%, back above 5% before Thursday's open.
