Monday's $69 billion 2-year auction cleared at 4.708%, but the buyer mix told the story. Indirect bidders took 45.7%, their lowest share since November 2021 and nearly 13 points below the six-month average.
Direct bidders filled the gap at 41.3%, a record in Treasury data back to 2004. Five-year and seven-year sales later this week will show whether the foreign step-back holds.
The equity tape ran in the opposite direction. Anthropic filed its S-1 Monday, disclosing $16.3 billion in first-half 2026 revenue, a 1,300% jump from a year earlier.
Chip stocks rode the filing higher, with the SOXX gaining 2.85% to 491.83. The S&P 500 added 0.70% to 7,676.77, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.82% to 26,169.38.
The Dow's 0.28% gain to 52,361.58 underlined the rally's tech tilt. The SOXX remains 25% below its June record, and NXP Semiconductors reports after Tuesday's close.
WTI settled at $101.76, down $1.51 or 1.46%, after Saudi Arabia's defense minister met with Iranian leaders in Tehran. Brent lost 91 cents to $115.81 after briefly topping $117 intraday.
The pullback eased one source of the inflation pressure that pushed the 10-year yield to 5.00% on Friday. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest since 1982.
Thursday's PCE report will show whether October's oil surge has reached consumer prices.
The Federal Reserve just warned another rate hike could hit soon…
And one ticker could give you the chance to add big money to your account.
But you need to be positioned before October 28.
The 10-year yield eased to 4.99%, tracking the oil retreat and the demand shift visible in Monday's auction. The 2-year settled near 4.70% after the sale, and the 30-year fell to 5.30%.
CME FedWatch prices a 92% probability that Wednesday's 2:00 p.m. decision holds rates unchanged. December is the live meeting, with hike odds near 78%.
Powell's 2:30 p.m. press conference Wednesday will be the week's most consequential half-hour for the rate path.
The Dallas Fed manufacturing index printed 13.4 in October, nearly double the 7.0 consensus. The beat followed the flash manufacturing PMI's 53-month high reported last week.
Two straight upside surprises in regional factory surveys complicate the case for an extended Fed pause. Thursday's advance Q3 GDP print, consensus near 3.2% versus Q2's 2.2%, will test whether national output matches the pattern.
Durable goods orders for September arrive at 8:30 a.m., consensus near 1.2% after August's flat reading. A beat would be the third signal of factory strength this month, after the PMI and Dallas Fed.
The Conference Board's October consumer confidence report follows at 10:00 a.m., consensus 81.2 versus September's 81.9, the lowest since 2014. New home sales for September post at the same time, with estimates near 655,000 versus August's 684,000.
The FOMC's two-day meeting begins this morning. Boeing, Coca-Cola, and UPS report before the bell, with Visa after the close.
