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  • AI Cooled. Oil Hit $94.

AI Cooled. Oil Hit $94.

Markets enter Thursday with the S&P 500 near 7,500, yields rising, and investors balancing earnings optimism against inflation risk.

Brian Tancock
Brian Tancock

Jul 23, 2026

•

4 min read

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U.S. markets enter Thursday, July 23, 2026, with conditions set by the Wednesday, July 22 close.

Stocks paused after the AI rebound. The Nasdaq weakened. The S&P 500 slipped. The Dow held steady. Small caps underperformed. Technology cooled. Oil surged higher. Treasury yields climbed. The dollar remained firm. Gold stayed supported.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,498.96.
The Nasdaq closed at 25,690.90.
The Dow closed at 52,218.58.
The Russell 2000 closed at 2,959.94.

The surface weakened. The internal structure showed investors taking a pause after Tuesday’s AI-led rebound while macro pressure returned through oil and rates.

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Equity Markets

Wednesday’s session showed mixed weakness across the major indexes.

The Dow finished nearly flat.
The S&P 500 fell -0.1%.
The Nasdaq declined -0.6%.
The Russell 2000 fell -0.9%.

That ranked the major indexes from strongest to weakest as: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000.

The S&P 500 lost 10.24 points.
The Nasdaq lost 146.31 points.
The Dow lost 6.06 points.
The Russell 2000 lost 27.46 points.

The strongest signal came from technology, but momentum slowed. After two strong sessions for AI and semiconductor stocks, investors shifted back toward caution. The Nasdaq gave back part of Tuesday’s rebound. That mattered because technology has been carrying a large portion of market leadership. The semiconductor recovery paused. Investors are now waiting for major technology earnings to determine whether AI spending can continue supporting elevated valuations.

The S&P 500 remained near 7,500. The index held its recent recovery, but failed to extend Tuesday’s move. The Dow showed the most resilience. Large-cap stocks held steady as investors rotated away from some growth exposure. Small caps weakened. The Russell 2000 fell below 3,000 again. That showed broader participation remains uneven. The market remains divided. Large technology is leading. Small companies are still waiting for easier financial conditions. For the year, major indexes remain positive.

The Russell 2000 remains one of the strongest performers.
The Nasdaq continues leading large-cap gains.
The S&P 500 remains close to elevated levels.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields moved higher Wednesday.

The 2-year yield stayed above 4%.
The 10-year yield moved near 4.65%.
The 30-year yield remained near 5%.

The bond market did not fully confirm the equity rebound. The main pressure point was energy. Higher oil prices increased inflation concerns and pushed yields higher. That matters for equity valuations. Higher yields create pressure on companies priced for strong future growth.

The 10-year yield near 4.65% keeps financial conditions restrictive.
The 2-year yield above 4% shows policy expectations remain firm.
The 30-year yield near 5% keeps long-term borrowing costs elevated.

The rate signal was clear. Stocks stabilized, but bonds continued pricing inflation risk. Markets enter Thursday with equity momentum improving from last week, but rates are still acting as a restraint.

Currency Markets

The dollar remained firm. The U.S. Dollar Index stayed near 101. The yen remained weak. The euro stayed under pressure. The dollar continued benefiting from higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger dollar creates a tighter global backdrop. It also adds pressure to commodities and foreign markets. The currency market showed investors were still balancing:

  • Higher inflation risk.

  • Higher rates.

  • Geopolitical uncertainty.

The dollar did not prevent the equity rebound, but it did not provide a major tailwind either.

Commodities

Commodity markets were led by another move higher in oil.

WTI crude moved near $86.
Brent crude moved near $94.
Gold remained supported.

Oil was the biggest macro signal Wednesday. Brent moved above $94 as markets continued tracking Middle East tensions and supply concerns. That changed the market conversation. Earlier in the week, the focus was the AI recovery.

Wednesday shifted attention back toward inflation. Higher oil prices can keep yields elevated. Higher yields can pressure growth stocks. Gold remained supported. Geopolitical risk helped demand. But higher yields limited upside. The commodity backdrop remains divided. Oil reflects inflation pressure. Gold reflects uncertainty.

Macro Backdrop

Thursday’s setup is defined by a market balancing earnings optimism against macro pressure. The AI trade recovered quickly. Then it paused. The market now faces a different test. Can earnings justify high expectations while oil and yields remain elevated? Wednesday showed the answer is still unclear. Technology weakened. Small caps struggled. Oil moved higher. Yields rose. But the broader market remained close to recent highs.

Investors are now focused on earnings. Major technology companies reporting this week will provide the next major signal for AI demand and spending. The market enters Thursday with three forces competing:

  • AI growth.

  • Energy inflation.

  • Interest rates.

The equity trend remains supported, but the macro backdrop remains restrictive.

Entering Today's Open

Key reference levels:

  • S&P 500: 7,498.96

  • Dow Jones: 52,218.58

  • Nasdaq: 25,690.90

  • Russell 2000: 2,959.94

  • 10-Year Yield: near 4.65%

  • 2-Year Yield: above 4%

  • 30-Year Yield: near 5%

  • U.S. Dollar Index: near 101

  • WTI Crude: near $86

  • Brent Crude: near $94

  • Gold: supported

Markets enter Thursday after a pause in the AI rebound. The Nasdaq slipped. The S&P 500 edged lower. The Dow held steady. Small caps weakened. Oil surged. Treasury yields climbed. The dollar stayed firm. Gold remained supported.

The key takeaway: Wednesday’s close showed the market is still caught between two forces. AI leadership remains powerful, but rising oil and yields are keeping macro pressure alive. The next move depends on whether earnings strength can overcome renewed inflation concerns.

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